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2018-01-18
The overall strength of the domestic chemical market is expected to continue with a strong concussion in the short term.
July filariasis, more hot weather, the domestic chemical market is also hot up. Although the demand for the chemical market has entered the off-season, the maintenance of various enterprises has come to an end, but the chemical market is still in a strong rise under the impetus of some products.
The data showed that on 10-14 July, the chemical price index (CCPI), which was published online by the chemical industry, closed on Friday at 4595 points, up 2.4%, and the overall performance was rising.
Among them, the 160 important chemical products price monitoring, Rose products are 64, accounting for 40% of the total, or the top three products were TDI (20.5%), PTA (9.3%) and n-butanol (8.5%); down products 38, accounting for 23.8% of the total decline in the top three. The products were polybutadiene rubber (8.5%) and acrylic acid (4.5%) and coal tar (3.5%); flat products are 58, accounting for 36.2% of the total.
TDI crazy since October last year rose to 50000 yuan (ton price, the same below) has began to step into a slump - the 9 month rally again Yindie xiongtu, the market price was cut once. Last week, TDI finally ushered in the retaliatory rebound, with a number of enterprises such as parking maintenance opportunity Shanghai cosmos Chong, Fujian petrochemical and Yantai Juli or long or short, traders reluctant to sell low-cost, stir up atmosphere is very thick, rose by more than 1000 yuan. With the increasing orders of TDI enterprises in the near future, the factory wants to control the goods in a limited amount. The intention of the city is stronger. The lower reaches of the market will not buy and fall, the enquiry is positive and the market is rising. In addition, Gansu silver 100 thousand tons of equipment plan to repair in the near future, in the short term, the TDI market still has room to rise.
The PTA market has risen steadily, and the price of East China has reached 5300 yuan again. Although Zhuhai BP restart, but in July Fujian Jialong Petrochemical began to overhaul and Yangzi Petrochemical, hanbon petrochemical and Peng Wei Petrochemical postponed resumption. The 11 day rumored that the malfunction of the constant force petrochemical equipment could not be driven on time, postponed to August, and Zheng Shang's PTA futures were directly raised. The supply side is favorable to support the market, and the high opening rate of downstream polyester plants has also ensured stable demand. The textile industry has a better sales of low inventory and a 6.1% increase in the downstream PET section. It is expected that PTA will run stronger in the short run.
Butyl alcohol series began to rebound in June, July on a step at a two-year high last week, butanol, octanol and isobutanol respectively rose 8.5%, 8.3% and 7.8%. Shandong increased environmental supervision, Luxi equipment reduction, Qilu delayed restart, Shandong Fang Ming also have parking plans, butanol market further bullish. In addition, the East China port is low in stock, and it is good for the market of n-butanol. In octanol enterprises, the low start rate of early price is low, which leads to the tighter stock and higher atmosphere.
Other rising products are MDI (5.7%), ethylene glycol (5.4%), acetonitrile (4.7%) and styrene (4.2%). As market supply continues to strain, the MDI market continues to go up last week, and the market is expected to remain high until the supply problem is relieved. In the two quarter, the ethylene glycol enterprise overhauled more, the port shipments were better in the near future, and the stock showed a downward trend. In addition, the downstream demand is strong, the sales of ethylene glycol is hot, and the price of the enterprise is constantly on the line. Because of the market supply of acetonitrile manufacturers, traders reluctant to sell low-cost, the market continued to pull up, but the downstream acrylonitrile parking more maintenance, poor market demand. The crash of the 9 Yangtze River Huarun wharf caused the supply of styrene material to be blocked, and the styrene plant in Changzhou and Xinyang technology were all affected, and the market was pushed up.
The market fell last week to increase strength of butadiene rubber. The butadiene device in Fushun Petrochemical Company will be restarted, the market of rubber and its raw materials, the market of butadiene is the first to slide. The high load of Yanshan Petrochemical butadiene plant operation, the market supply is adequate. The lower tires and the automobile industry are off season, and the demand continues to be disadvantaged. The related product butadiene rubber market also followed the raw materials.
The weakness of the market in the near future is the weakness of the acrylic market. The propene of raw materials tends to be strong, but the cost support is less than the demand. Terminal coatings and other industries are more and more shut down by environmental protection. At the same time, the acrylic acid enterprises overhauled gradually started, and the business load increased slightly compared with the previous stage. In the off-season, there was an accumulative trend of inventory in the field, and the imbalance between supply and demand. At present, the enterprises mainly focused on clearing stocks, and the center of gravity shifted downward.
The coal tar market continued downhill last week. Although the business start-up rate is still at a low level, the overall demand of downstream industries is not smooth enough to boost the coal tar market.
To sum up, the overhaul of some enterprises has caused the product supply to be tight, and the basic support is still the main factor of the strong operation of the market. The first half of the season market to encourage enterprises to actively carry out Guadan inventory policy, the upward trend in the market in July proved that the effect is obvious.
In the first half of July, international crude oil was shaking again and again, but the trend of the domestic chemical market was getting far away. Some of the products that rely on imports are running in the opposite direction with crude oil. Despite the extension of the limited production agreement, it has little restraint on the oil producing countries. At present, the majority of the people in the industry have seen empty prices in the future.
In the first half of 2017, the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is not bad. In July, it has been more than half. After August, it is closer to Jin Yin Yin ten. Most people in the industry are optimistic about the trend of market in the second half of the year. It is expected that the market will continue to be partial and strong in the short run.
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